Agility in uncertainty

Planning for an Unpredictable Future

The current climate of market uncertainty is unprecedented in recent history and is throwing businesses large and small into turmoil. The goal posts are in flux and it's not clear which way to go to protect your interests.

SMEs particularly face an enormous challenge, because unlike large corporations with buffers of capital and teams of analysts to help, small businesses often operate with limited resources and narrower margins for error.

However, before you panic, remember that all is not hopeless - small companies have agility on their side, and this ability to adapt to changing conditions, combined with level-headed planning, creativity and resilience will help your business survive and thrive in these challenging times.

Accept That Uncertainty is the New Normal

The first step in planning for an unpredictable future is acknowledging that uncertainty is most likely here to stay. From trade wars and tariffs, to global pandemics and inflation surges, to supply chain disruptions and technological upheavals, the modern economy is full of curveballs.

For small businesses, this means letting go of the illusion of perfect foresight. Instead of rigid future plans, businesses need flexible frameworks that can change and evolve with the current times. This type of strategic planning should include multiple scenarios - best case, worst case, and everything in between. This mental shift prepares businesses to pivot, not panic, when things go sideways.

Focus on Agility Over Perfection

Agility beats perfection in an uncertain economy. An agile business can adjust pricing, marketing, supply chains, and even core offerings with minimal friction. This ability to adapt quickly is often a competitive advantage over non-agile competitors. Agility comes from:

• Empowering employees to make decisions without always going through layers of approval.

• Regular check-ins with customers, suppliers, and staff help spot issues early and course-correct in real time.

• Use tools and software that can scale up or down as needed without overhauling entire processes.

A small business doesn't need to have it all figured out. It just needs to move fast and learn faster.

Build Financial Resilience

Cash flow is the lifeblood of a small business and in uncertain times, liquidity can be more important than profit. Building financial resilience means ensuring the business can survive a downturn or unexpected shock.

Tactics include:

• Diversifying revenue streams: Not relying on one client, one product, one service, etc. Always be on the lookout for new opportunities.

• Cutting unnecessary fixed costs: Lease instead of buying, independent contractors versus full-time employees, etc.

• Creating an emergency fund: A cash reserve that covers 3-6 months of expenses can be the difference between survival and closure in a crisis.

  
  
  
  

Develop a Contingency Plan

A contingency plan is a business’s "break glass in case of emergency" strategy. It outlines what to do if core assumptions fail, if a key supplier shuts down, if a location becomes unusable, or if regulations change overnight.

A contingency plan should cover:

• Supply chain alternatives: Have backup suppliers.

• Revenue shock scenarios: Outline steps to cut costs or pivot offerings quickly.

• Operational continuity: Determine how operations will continue during unforeseen emergencies or periods of instability.

• Communication protocols: Plan how to communicate with customers and stakeholders during a crisis.

Stay Close to Customers

In unpredictable times, customers can be a business’s compass. Their needs, behaviors, and feedback can guide a business as to what the next steps should be. Small businesses have the advantage over large businesses as they can listen and react faster.

• Get direct feedback

• Track buying behavior

• Communicate with customers frequently

Build a Culture of Adaptability

A business is only as resilient as its team. Cultivating a team that embraces change, learns on the fly, and doesn’t panic under pressure is crucial for navigating uncertainty.

• Encourage new ideas and testing

• Celebrate adaptability, creative solutions, and successes

• Invest in training

Learning is Essential

One of the best ways to prepare for an unpredictable future is to keep learning; constantly reading, networking, being aware, and absorbing new trends. Whether it’s learning a new marketing technique, understanding emerging technology, or staying up to date on consumer habits, knowledge is a strategic asset.

Adaptability comes not from knowing everything but from being willing to learn anything.